TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079148
Played Sep 5Finished
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012311811––––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 63.6%
55 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 3–3 Denys Shcherbak Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:24What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1565 vs Shcherbak 1720
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Shcherbak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 60% vs Shcherbak 40%
Lazebnyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi -1 · Shcherbak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 2.38 / Shcherbak 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Shcherbak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079148
Lazebnyi2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 16 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Shcherbak1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 153 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it93% 87 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it76% 119 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLazebnyi3wins
AwayShcherbak3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayShcherbak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi1Shcherbak5n = 6Shcherbak took 5 of 6
S2Lazebnyi3Shcherbak3n = 6split evenly
S3Lazebnyi4Shcherbak2n = 6Lazebnyi took 4 of 6
S4Lazebnyi1Shcherbak2n = 3Shcherbak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricLazebnyiShcherbakL − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match34.737.2−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 101 vs 316 / 61250.5%51.6%51 / 101 vs 316 / 612Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakLazebnyi 2.38/Shcherbak 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 4 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi—1411113D. Shcherbak—12790
LAug 28 · 14:05R. Lazebnyi—611110D. Shcherbak—1113133
LAug 22 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi—4950D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 21 · 14:05R. Lazebnyi—811126113D. Shcherbak—119101172
LAug 21 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi—981291D. Shcherbak—111110113
WAug 8 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi—71111113D. Shcherbak—117881
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.3012790R. Lazebnyi3.401411113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.3012790R. Lazebnyi3.401411113
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