TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079322
Played Sep 5Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1197111210711118
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 59.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 18–12 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-12 in 30
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1728 vs Kovalchuk 1623
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 40% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +2 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Shcherbak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.67 / Kovalchuk 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Shcherbak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079322
Shcherbak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 153 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it93% 87 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it76% 119 of 156
Kovalchuk2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog45% won 64 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak7wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak100%6 of 6
AwayKovalchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak6Kovalchuk4n = 10Shcherbak took 6 of 10
S2Shcherbak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Shcherbak3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Shcherbak5Kovalchuk3n = 8Shcherbak took 5 of 8
S5Shcherbak3Kovalchuk0n = 3Shcherbak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakKovalchukS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.335.8+0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 613 vs 360 / 70451.7%51.1%317 / 613 vs 360 / 704Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.67/Kovalchuk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 10:05D. Shcherbak—11115113N. Kovalchuk—271191
LAug 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak—8750N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WAug 8 · 06:35D. Shcherbak—111166113N. Kovalchuk—88111122
WJul 3 · 03:00D. Shcherbak—115117113N. Kovalchuk—81141192
LJun 29 · 01:30D. Shcherbak—711661N. Kovalchuk—11911113
WJun 15 · 24:30D. Shcherbak—51111113N. Kovalchuk—116661
WJun 3 · 04:35D. Shcherbak—1111111113N. Kovalchuk—81311592
WJun 2 · 13:35D. Shcherbak—11118113N. Kovalchuk—391171
WJun 2 · 03:00D. Shcherbak—11912113N. Kovalchuk—3111091
LMay 18 · 20:00D. Shcherbak—5670N. Kovalchuk—1111113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891WSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
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