TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084144
Played Sep 6Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111910121412711
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 105 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 1–3 Nazar Kovalchuk Yurii Shmyndra has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:11What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1574 vs Kovalchuk 1575
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 50% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra -1 · Kovalchuk -3
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 2.00 / Kovalchuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13084144
Shmyndra2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back24% 14 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Kovalchuk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 167 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it71% 114 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeShmyndra1wins
AwayKovalchuk3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
S2Shmyndra2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
S3Shmyndra2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
S4Shmyndra3Kovalchuk1n = 4Shmyndra took 3 of 4
S5Shmyndra0Kovalchuk3n = 3Kovalchuk took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away375%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricShmyndraKovalchukS − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.845.8−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 192 vs 363 / 71145.3%51.1%87 / 192 vs 363 / 711Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukShmyndra 2.00/Kovalchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra—811101472N. Kovalchuk—1191212113
WAug 9 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra—11911123N. Kovalchuk—8114101
LJul 5 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra—35111172N. Kovalchuk—111193113
LJun 26 · 21:00Y. Shmyndra—111181142N. Kovalchuk—961113113
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551WSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
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