TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079108
Played Sep 5Finished
Ruslan Haiseniuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111210711115511
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Haiseniuk above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Haiseniuk 16–14 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Haiseniuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Haiseniuk 1587 vs Kovalchuk 1626
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Haiseniuk 60% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Haiseniuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Haiseniuk 50% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Haiseniuk -1 · Kovalchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHaiseniuk 1.83 / Kovalchuk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079108
Haiseniuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Kovalchuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHaiseniuk5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHaiseniuk75%3 of 4
AwayKovalchuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Haiseniuk4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Haiseniuk8Kovalchuk2n = 10Haiseniuk took 8 of 10
S3Haiseniuk3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Haiseniuk4Kovalchuk2n = 6Haiseniuk took 4 of 6
S5Haiseniuk1Kovalchuk2n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHaiseniukKovalchukH − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.334.2−0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHaiseniukKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 745 vs 358 / 70156%51.1%417 / 745 vs 358 / 701Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukHaiseniuk 1.83/Kovalchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 15:05R. Haiseniuk—611811113N. Kovalchuk—11911842
LAug 29 · 10:05R. Haiseniuk—41141192N. Kovalchuk—117119113
WAug 28 · 12:35R. Haiseniuk—51111113N. Kovalchuk—114951
LAug 22 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk—711941N. Kovalchuk—11511113
WAug 15 · 10:05R. Haiseniuk—1211113N. Kovalchuk—10350
WAug 14 · 12:35R. Haiseniuk—1111113N. Kovalchuk—7380
WJun 29 · 24:00R. Haiseniuk—11119113N. Kovalchuk—571191
LJun 10 · 24:45R. Haiseniuk—3970N. Kovalchuk—1111113
LMay 1 · 23:00R. Haiseniuk—11114432N. Kovalchuk—971111113
LApr 24 · 23:00R. Haiseniuk—5480N. Kovalchuk—1111113
R. Haiseniuk10
LSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113LSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113WSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771LSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113WSep 4 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.8311911842R. Haiseniuk1.83611811113WSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 13:05Y. Kravets2.5011311672R. Haiseniuk1.50511911113LSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143LSep 4 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.441111113R. Haiseniuk2.636770
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 4 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.8311911842R. Haiseniuk1.83611811113
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