TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073646
Played Sep 4Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116911118811411
Ruslan Haiseniuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Haiseniuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 13–14 Ruslan Haiseniuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Haiseniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1652 vs Haiseniuk 1611
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Haiseniuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Haiseniuk 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Haiseniuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.83 / Haiseniuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073646
Kovalchuk1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Haiseniuk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk6wins
AwayHaiseniuk4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%5 of 5
AwayHaiseniuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Haiseniuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk5Haiseniuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk7Haiseniuk3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk2Haiseniuk2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukHaiseniukK − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.028.7+3.3per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukHaiseniukBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 699 vs 416 / 74351.2%56%358 / 699 vs 416 / 743Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.83/Haiseniuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Haiseniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk—11511113R. Haiseniuk—711941
LAug 15 · 10:05N. Kovalchuk—10350R. Haiseniuk—1211113
LAug 14 · 12:35N. Kovalchuk—7380R. Haiseniuk—1111113
LJun 29 · 24:00N. Kovalchuk—571191R. Haiseniuk—11119113
WJun 10 · 24:45N. Kovalchuk—1111113R. Haiseniuk—3970
WMay 1 · 23:00N. Kovalchuk—971111113R. Haiseniuk—11114432
WApr 24 · 23:00N. Kovalchuk—1111113R. Haiseniuk—5480
WApr 10 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk—1111113R. Haiseniuk—7880
WApr 5 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk—1111113R. Haiseniuk—3750
LMar 29 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk—1011661R. Haiseniuk—12611113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113
R. Haiseniuk10
LSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113LSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113WSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771LSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113WSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 13:05Y. Kravets2.5011311672R. Haiseniuk1.50511911113LSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143LSep 4 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.441111113R. Haiseniuk2.636770
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