TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084450
Played Sep 6Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111214119911––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 84 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 60.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 32–27 Serhii Kalenyk Serhii Kalenyk has won 27 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-27 in 59
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1610 vs Kalenyk 1494
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Kalenyk 80%
Kalenyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Kalenyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Kalenyk +4
Kalenyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.61 / Kalenyk 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084450
Kovalchuk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 167 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it71% 114 of 161
Kalenyk2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayKalenyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk3Kalenyk7n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk7Kalenyk3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Kalenyk5n = 9Kalenyk took 5 of 9
S5Kovalchuk2Kalenyk1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukKalenykKovalchuk − KalenykBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.442.9−1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 708 vs 337 / 71751.1%47%362 / 708 vs 337 / 717Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.61/Kalenyk 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 24:45N. Kovalchuk—712611113S. Kalenyk—111011792
LAug 4 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—8811111S. Kalenyk—11117133
LJul 24 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk—8111131S. Kalenyk—11139113
LJun 30 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk—5101181S. Kalenyk—11127113
WJun 26 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk—111210113S. Kalenyk—8101281
WJun 24 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk—138117143S. Kalenyk—1111911122
WJun 22 · 21:45N. Kovalchuk—11611153S. Kalenyk—9113131
LJun 20 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—1279151S. Kalenyk—101111173
WJun 17 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—1112113S. Kalenyk—91080
LJun 15 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk—810111152S. Kalenyk—111288113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551LSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532
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