TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078982
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Berezynskyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
11911844––––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Berezynskyi to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Berezynskyi above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-4
Point 47 set 3, 4-4 — our read held Serhii Berezynskyi at 68.1%
47 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Berezynskyi 12–6 Serhii Kalenyk Serhii Kalenyk has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Berezynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Berezynskyi
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berezynskyi 1611 vs Kalenyk 1433
Berezynskyi
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berezynskyi 20% vs Kalenyk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berezynskyi 30% vs Kalenyk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berezynskyi -1 · Kalenyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Berezynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerezynskyi 1.44 / Kalenyk 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Berezynskyi)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13078982
Berezynskyi1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 44 of 60
Kalenyk2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 70 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerezynskyi9wins
AwayKalenyk1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBerezynskyi leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerezynskyi100%3 of 3
AwayKalenyk14.3%1 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berezynskyi3Kalenyk7n = 10Kalenyk took 7 of 10
S2Berezynskyi7Kalenyk3n = 10Berezynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Berezynskyi8Kalenyk2n = 10Berezynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Berezynskyi8Kalenyk1n = 9Berezynskyi took 8 of 9
S5Berezynskyi3Kalenyk1n = 4Berezynskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerezynskyiKalenykB − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.135.4+7.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerezynskyiKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 355 vs 333 / 71250.4%46.8%179 / 355 vs 333 / 712Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerezynskyiBerezynskyi 1.44/Kalenyk 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Berezynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Berezynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi—2111011113S. Kalenyk—11312532
WAug 19 · 20:15S. Berezynskyi—71111113S. Kalenyk—114671
WAug 19 · 24:15S. Berezynskyi—871111113S. Kalenyk—11118682
WAug 8 · 01:30S. Berezynskyi—12115113S. Kalenyk—1051191
WJul 30 · 01:45S. Berezynskyi—101112113S. Kalenyk—1251081
WJul 15 · 24:15S. Berezynskyi—915157113S. Kalenyk—1113131162
WJul 11 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi—11812113S. Kalenyk—8111031
WJul 11 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi—1111113S. Kalenyk—9280
WJun 12 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi—81111113S. Kalenyk—115361
LJun 9 · 02:15S. Berezynskyi—49111172S. Kalenyk—111169113
S. Berezynskyi10
LSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841LSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123WSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532LSep 5 · 24:30M. Smyrnov2.501111123S. Berezynskyi1.5087100LSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152WSep 4 · 21:00S. Berezynskyi1.5011811113V. Vlasenko2.50711671LSep 1 · 01:52N. Kovalchuk1.4412611153S. Berezynskyi2.6310117131
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551LSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532
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