TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073945
Played Sep 4Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116311114711115
Serhii Berezynskyi
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Berezynskyi to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Serhii Berezynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 80 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Berezynskyi at 64.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 8–8 Serhii Berezynskyi Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Berezynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1443 vs Berezynskyi 1667
Berezynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 224 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 20% vs Berezynskyi 40%
Berezynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 30% vs Berezynskyi 60%
Berezynskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla -1 · Berezynskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Berezynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berezynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 2.38 / Berezynskyi 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Berezynskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13073945
Mitla2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 169 of 390
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 132
Berezynskyi1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 55 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it74% 43 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla6wins
AwayBerezynskyi4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla75%3 of 4
AwayBerezynskyi50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla4Berezynskyi6n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Mitla4Berezynskyi6n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Mitla6Berezynskyi4n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S4Mitla4Berezynskyi3n = 7Mitla took 4 of 7
S5Mitla3Berezynskyi1n = 4Mitla took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaBerezynskyiM − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.4−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaBerezynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 747 vs 177 / 35043.4%50.6%324 / 747 vs 177 / 350Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerezynskyiMitla 2.38/Berezynskyi 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Berezynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla—113117113S. Berezynskyi—61141152
LAug 27 · 01:45O. Mitla—9920S. Berezynskyi—1111113
LAug 20 · 02:15O. Mitla—123631S. Berezynskyi—101111113
WAug 8 · 02:30O. Mitla—911113113S. Berezynskyi—11941122
LJul 15 · 01:15O. Mitla—517111482S. Berezynskyi—1119812113
WJul 14 · 01:45O. Mitla—8121111113S. Berezynskyi—11147842
WJul 10 · 23:30O. Mitla—81111113S. Berezynskyi—118981
WJul 1 · 23:15O. Mitla—11124113S. Berezynskyi—9101151
LMay 16 · 13:35O. Mitla—4950S. Berezynskyi—1111113
WMay 15 · 21:00O. Mitla—1111113S. Berezynskyi—9790
O. Mitla10
LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla2.38111192113S. Kalenyk1.5387111182LSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151
S. Berezynskyi10
LSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123WSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532LSep 5 · 24:30M. Smyrnov2.501111123S. Berezynskyi1.5087100LSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113WSep 4 · 21:00S. Berezynskyi1.5011811113V. Vlasenko2.50711671LSep 1 · 01:52N. Kovalchuk1.4412611153S. Berezynskyi2.6310117131
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