TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073988
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210611611117119
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksii Mitla to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Oleksii Mitla at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 36–37 Valerii Vlasenko Oleksii Mitla has won 36 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:00What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mitla
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-37 in 73
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1455 vs Vlasenko 1458
Vlasenko
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 60% vs Vlasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 30% vs Vlasenko 50%
Vlasenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla +2 · Vlasenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mitla)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 1.80 / Vlasenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mitla)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073988
Mitla1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 63 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it68% 34 of 50
Vlasenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 123 of 295
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla5wins
AwayVlasenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla80%4 of 5
AwayVlasenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla5Vlasenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Mitla4Vlasenko6n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S3Mitla5Vlasenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mitla5Vlasenko3n = 8Mitla took 5 of 8
S5Mitla2Vlasenko3n = 5Vlasenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaVlasenkoM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.543.4−0.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 748 vs 408 / 92943.5%43.9%325 / 748 vs 408 / 929Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitlaMitla 1.80/Vlasenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mitla · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 01:15O. Mitla—11111310102V. Vlasenko—1341112123
LAug 30 · 08:35O. Mitla—810111352V. Vlasenko—1112811113
LAug 28 · 23:00O. Mitla—48130V. Vlasenko—1111153
WAug 26 · 20:45O. Mitla—9131110123V. Vlasenko—1111912102
WAug 24 · 22:45O. Mitla—111111133V. Vlasenko—8137111
WAug 17 · 22:45O. Mitla—128911113V. Vlasenko—101111982
WAug 14 · 24:15O. Mitla—11124113V. Vlasenko—6101171
LAug 12 · 23:45O. Mitla—11117582V. Vlasenko—741111113
LAug 11 · 23:45O. Mitla—6890V. Vlasenko—1111113
WAug 8 · 24:30O. Mitla—11713123V. Vlasenko—81111101
O. Mitla10
LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla2.38111192113S. Kalenyk1.5387111182WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152LSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192WSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592
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