TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073639
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleksii Mitla
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118117911211118
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kalenyk to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Kalenyk at 61.2%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Mitla 27–46 Serhii Kalenyk Oleksii Mitla has won 27 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kalenyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-46 in 73
Kalenyk
Wrong
gap of 19 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitla 1443 vs Kalenyk 1465
Kalenyk
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitla 40% vs Kalenyk 20%
Mitla
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitla 30% vs Kalenyk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitla +1 · Kalenyk -3
Kalenyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kalenyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitla 2.38 / Kalenyk 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kalenyk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073639
Mitla2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 169 of 390
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back11% 15 of 132
Kalenyk1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 116 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it93% 64 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it72% 87 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitla6wins
AwayKalenyk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitla100%4 of 4
AwayKalenyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitla4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S2Mitla2Kalenyk8n = 10Kalenyk took 8 of 10
S3Mitla4Kalenyk6n = 10Kalenyk took 6 of 10
S4Mitla6Kalenyk0n = 6Mitla took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitlaKalenykM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.137.7−2.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitlaKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 747 vs 332 / 70743.4%47%324 / 747 vs 332 / 707Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenykMitla 2.38/Kalenyk 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Kalenyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 22:15O. Mitla—6580S. Kalenyk—1111113
WSep 1 · 20:15O. Mitla—81111113S. Kalenyk—118981
WAug 20 · 24:15O. Mitla—1171111113S. Kalenyk—13117392
WAug 13 · 22:15O. Mitla—11711113S. Kalenyk—911791
LAug 13 · 24:45O. Mitla—1590S. Kalenyk—1111113
WAug 12 · 24:45O. Mitla—111110133S. Kalenyk—8912111
LAug 7 · 23:30O. Mitla—9860S. Kalenyk—1111113
WAug 5 · 23:45O. Mitla—12612163S. Kalenyk—101110141
WAug 5 · 02:45O. Mitla—117712113S. Kalenyk—611111072
LAug 4 · 01:45O. Mitla—8870S. Kalenyk—1111113
O. Mitla10
LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152LSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551
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