TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079304
Played Sep 5Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161113115115––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 3–5 Serhii Kalenyk Yurii Shmyndra has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kalenyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kalenyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1648 vs Kalenyk 1464
Shmyndra
Correct
both rated, 184 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 60% vs Kalenyk 20%
Shmyndra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 80% vs Kalenyk 30%
Shmyndra
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra +3 · Kalenyk -1
Shmyndra
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalenyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 2.00 / Kalenyk 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shmyndra)+7.7pp
Setka Cup · #13079304
Shmyndra2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 54 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Kalenyk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 114 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it72% 86 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeShmyndra3wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKalenyk leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra66.7%2 of 3
AwayKalenyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra3Kalenyk5n = 8Kalenyk took 5 of 8
S2Shmyndra3Kalenyk5n = 8Kalenyk took 5 of 8
S3Shmyndra5Kalenyk3n = 8Shmyndra took 5 of 8
S4Shmyndra2Kalenyk3n = 5Kalenyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricShmyndraKalenykS − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match33.037.0−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 182 vs 333 / 71045.6%46.9%83 / 182 vs 333 / 710Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraShmyndra 2.00/Kalenyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 15 · 13:35Y. Shmyndra—1312113S. Kalenyk—111060
LAug 8 · 03:00Y. Shmyndra—114651S. Kalenyk—81111113
WJul 12 · 11:35Y. Shmyndra—81111123S. Kalenyk—1197101
LJul 11 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra—411118112S. Kalenyk—116611133
LJun 28 · 10:05Y. Shmyndra—1281161S. Kalenyk—14119113
LJun 27 · 02:30Y. Shmyndra—83120S. Kalenyk—1111143
WJun 14 · 08:35Y. Shmyndra—11711113S. Kalenyk—711751
LJun 6 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra—6360S. Kalenyk—1111113
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532
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