TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060540
Played Sep 2Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115118911119––
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 62.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 3–7 Vitalii S Marushchak Yurii Shmyndra has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Marushchak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Marushchak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1635 vs Marushchak 1692
Marushchak
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 60% vs Marushchak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 70% vs Marushchak 40%
Shmyndra
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra +2 · Marushchak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shmyndra form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 2.25 / Marushchak 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Marushchak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13060540
Shmyndra2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Marushchak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 70 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShmyndra3wins
AwayMarushchak7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra60%3 of 5
AwayMarushchak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S2Shmyndra2Marushchak8n = 10Marushchak took 8 of 10
S3Shmyndra7Marushchak3n = 10Shmyndra took 7 of 10
S4Shmyndra2Marushchak5n = 7Marushchak took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShmyndraMarushchakS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.836.0−2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 181 vs 297 / 63145.3%47.1%82 / 181 vs 297 / 631Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakShmyndra 2.25/Marushchak 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 14:30Y. Shmyndra—1111113V. Marushchak—8990
LAug 11 · 13:00Y. Shmyndra—117831V. Marushchak—61111113
LJul 15 · 06:20Y. Shmyndra—1061161V. Marushchak—12118113
LJul 14 · 12:30Y. Shmyndra—871191V. Marushchak—11114113
LJul 7 · 17:38Y. Shmyndra—6650V. Marushchak—1111113
WJul 7 · 15:30Y. Shmyndra—11912113V. Marushchak—3111061
LJun 30 · 13:00Y. Shmyndra—971141V. Marushchak—11119113
LJun 24 · 10:20Y. Shmyndra—107111172V. Marushchak—121165113
LJun 23 · 19:50Y. Shmyndra—118881V. Marushchak—81111113
WJun 9 · 16:50Y. Shmyndra—1111143V. Marushchak—58120
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551
V. Marushchak10
LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102WSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.911071241V. Marushchak1.80121110113
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