TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073019
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117115––––
Volodymyr Savoliuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Volodymyr Savoliuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 55.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 10–5 Volodymyr Savoliuk Volodymyr Savoliuk has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1679 vs Savoliuk 1780
Savoliuk
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 40% vs Savoliuk 80%
Savoliuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 40% vs Savoliuk 60%
Savoliuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak -3 · Savoliuk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Savoliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.57 / Savoliuk 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Marushchak)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13073019
Marushchak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 71 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it80% 55 of 69
Savoliuk2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 12 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak6wins
AwaySavoliuk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak83.3%5 of 6
AwaySavoliuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak6Savoliuk4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Marushchak4Savoliuk6n = 10Savoliuk took 6 of 10
S3Marushchak5Savoliuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Marushchak4Savoliuk4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakSavoliukM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.2+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakSavoliukBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 627 vs 289 / 50347.4%57.5%297 / 627 vs 289 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.57/Savoliuk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 22 · 11:40V. Marushchak—1111108113V. Savoliuk—56121162
WFeb 10 · 18:20V. Marushchak—11913113V. Savoliuk—8111191
LFeb 3 · 20:50V. Marushchak—31120V. Savoliuk—1113103
WFeb 2 · 13:40V. Marushchak—4111111113V. Savoliuk—11913752
WJan 26 · 12:40V. Marushchak—1111113V. Savoliuk—4850
WJan 20 · 20:50V. Marushchak—11616113V. Savoliuk—6111471
LJan 19 · 13:40V. Marushchak—11103101V. Savoliuk—91211123
LJan 13 · 16:50V. Marushchak—611951V. Savoliuk—11811113
WJan 12 · 13:40V. Marushchak—11811113V. Savoliuk—811741
LJan 6 · 20:20V. Marushchak—6311121V. Savoliuk—11118143
V. Marushchak10
LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102WSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.911071241V. Marushchak1.80121110113
V. Savoliuk10
WSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961LSep 4 · 15:40A. Hrabskyi1.611112113V. Savoliuk2.2091060LSep 4 · 13:40V. Voronenko1.6111115113V. Savoliuk2.20751171LSep 4 · 12:40V. Savoliuk3.508111181A. Yurkov1.2811136113WSep 1 · 12:20V. Savoliuk1.4061113133O. Strutinskiy2.7511711111WSep 1 · 10:20Y. Opryshchenko2.0014911652V. Savoliuk1.731211811113WSep 1 · 09:20V. Savoliuk1.611111113A. Nazarov2.202940LSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.83511117113V. Savoliuk1.8311961132WSep 1 · 06:50V. Savoliuk1.53111112123A. Derevianko2.386914101LAug 31 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.501112113V. Savoliuk1.5081060
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