TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073420
Played Sep 4Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012112911111911
Artem Yurkov
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Artem Yurkov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 87 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 55–87 Artem Yurkov Vitalii S Marushchak has won 55 of their 142 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Yurkov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-87 in 142
Yurkov
Correct
gap of 32 in 142, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1729 vs Yurkov 1637
Marushchak
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 80% vs Yurkov 60%
Marushchak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 70% vs Yurkov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak +4 · Yurkov -2
Marushchak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.91 / Yurkov 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marushchak)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073420
Marushchak1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Yurkov1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 210 of 357
Up 2–0, closes it92% 83 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it73% 138 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak4wins
AwayYurkov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderYurkov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak66.7%4 of 6
AwayYurkov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak6Yurkov4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Marushchak5Yurkov5n = 10split evenly
S3Marushchak5Yurkov5n = 10split evenly
S4Marushchak4Yurkov1n = 5Marushchak took 4 of 5
S5Marushchak0Yurkov4n = 4Yurkov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakYurkovM − YBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.933.8+2.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakYurkovBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 631 vs 590 / 98947.7%59.7%301 / 631 vs 590 / 989Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.91/Yurkov 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yurkov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak—8460A. Yurkov—1111113
LSep 1 · 17:00V. Marushchak—11611972A. Yurkov—811411113
WAug 31 · 11:40V. Marushchak—1111113A. Yurkov—4730
WAug 28 · 15:40V. Marushchak—111110113A. Yurkov—881241
WAug 25 · 17:00V. Marushchak—1111113A. Yurkov—6860
WAug 24 · 14:10V. Marushchak—1111113A. Yurkov—7850
LAug 21 · 11:10V. Marushchak—12721182A. Yurkov—1011117113
LAug 18 · 15:00V. Marushchak—1011811102A. Yurkov—128113123
LAug 17 · 14:10V. Marushchak—4690A. Yurkov—1111113
LAug 11 · 17:00V. Marushchak—88111182A. Yurkov—111166113
V. Marushchak10
WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102WSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.911071241V. Marushchak1.80121110113
A. Yurkov10
LSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi2.101116123A. Yurkov1.67614100WSep 4 · 12:40V. Savoliuk3.508111181A. Yurkov1.2811136113WSep 4 · 10:40V. Voronenko3.001175101A. Yurkov1.3621111123WSep 2 · 12:20O. Seliuchenko1.91971171A. Yurkov1.8011116113LSep 2 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.8011611113A. Yurkov1.91711961WSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 05:50Y. Shmyndra1.804540A. Yurkov1.911111113LSep 1 · 19:00A. Yurkov2.00711241A. Lievshin1.7311911113WSep 1 · 17:00V. Marushchak2.0011611972A. Yurkov1.73811411113
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