TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073252
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Hrabskyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8115111113––––
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Hrabskyi above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 59 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Hrabskyi 36–28 Vitalii S Marushchak Vitalii S Marushchak has won 28 of their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-28 in 64
Hrabskyi
Wrong
gap of 8 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrabskyi 1602 vs Marushchak 1696
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrabskyi 20% vs Marushchak 40%
Marushchak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrabskyi 30% vs Marushchak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrabskyi -2 · Marushchak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrabskyi 1.91 / Marushchak 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Marushchak)+3.8pp
Setka Cup · #13073252
Hrabskyi1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 117 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back26% 43 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 87
Marushchak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 71 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it80% 55 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrabskyi5wins
AwayMarushchak5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrabskyi80%4 of 5
AwayMarushchak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrabskyi5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrabskyi5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrabskyi3Marushchak7n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S4Hrabskyi2Marushchak6n = 8Marushchak took 6 of 8
S5Hrabskyi4Marushchak0n = 4Hrabskyi took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrabskyiMarushchakH − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.341.4−3.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrabskyiMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 495 vs 298 / 62843.6%47.5%216 / 495 vs 298 / 628Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakHrabskyi 1.91/Marushchak 1.80
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 10:50A. Hrabskyi—915811113V. Marushchak—111311982
LSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi—1071241V. Marushchak—121110113
LAug 31 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi—1125121V. Marushchak—91111143
LAug 25 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi—961151V. Marushchak—11118113
WAug 24 · 17:10A. Hrabskyi—1111133V. Marushchak—54110
LAug 21 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi—7470V. Marushchak—1111113
LAug 18 · 17:00A. Hrabskyi—611871V. Marushchak—11811113
WAug 17 · 17:10A. Hrabskyi—11121011113V. Marushchak—91412982
WAug 11 · 14:00A. Hrabskyi—111179113V. Marushchak—87111162
WAug 10 · 17:10A. Hrabskyi—111158113V. Marushchak—89111142
A. Hrabskyi10
WSep 4 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.2591111782A. Hrabskyi1.57116711113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Hrabskyi1.611112113V. Savoliuk2.2091060WSep 4 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi2.101116123A. Yurkov1.67614100LSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123LSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113WSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 08:50Y. Shmyndra1.809111211113A. Hrabskyi1.91114101392LSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.911071241V. Marushchak1.80121110113LSep 1 · 16:30A. Hrabskyi1.839101161Y. Shmyndra1.8311127113WSep 1 · 15:00A. Hrabskyi1.911191111123A. Yurkov1.80911813102
V. Marushchak10
LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682WSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102WSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.911071241V. Marushchak1.80121110113
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