TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060785
Played Sep 2Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91111412101113119
Andrii Hrabskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 7–3 Andrii Hrabskyi Andrii Hrabskyi has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Shmyndra
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Shmyndra
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1605 vs Hrabskyi 1620
Hrabskyi
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 60% vs Hrabskyi 20%
Shmyndra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 60% vs Hrabskyi 20%
Shmyndra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra -2 · Hrabskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrabskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 1.80 / Hrabskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shmyndra)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13060785
Shmyndra1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 27 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it56% 14 of 25
Hrabskyi1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 116 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back26% 42 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShmyndra7wins
AwayHrabskyi3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderShmyndra leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra60%3 of 5
AwayHrabskyi20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra5Hrabskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Shmyndra8Hrabskyi2n = 10Shmyndra took 8 of 10
S3Shmyndra4Hrabskyi6n = 10Hrabskyi took 6 of 10
S4Shmyndra6Hrabskyi4n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S5Shmyndra3Hrabskyi2n = 5Shmyndra took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShmyndraHrabskyiS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.641.1+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 179 vs 215 / 49144.7%43.8%80 / 179 vs 215 / 491Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraShmyndra 1.80/Hrabskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 16:30Y. Shmyndra—11127113A. Hrabskyi—9101161
WAug 12 · 05:50Y. Shmyndra—71111113A. Hrabskyi—116951
LAug 11 · 18:30Y. Shmyndra—12117792A. Hrabskyi—1071111113
WJul 7 · 19:00Y. Shmyndra—111187113A. Hrabskyi—57111192
WJul 1 · 05:50Y. Shmyndra—61111113A. Hrabskyi—116791
LJun 30 · 15:00Y. Shmyndra—13118592A. Hrabskyi—1181111113
WJun 24 · 05:50Y. Shmyndra—911511123A. Hrabskyi—117114102
WJun 23 · 15:20Y. Shmyndra—8101111123A. Hrabskyi—111269102
WJun 10 · 10:50Y. Shmyndra—11711113A. Hrabskyi—911951
LJun 9 · 18:50Y. Shmyndra—911791A. Hrabskyi—11811113
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551
A. Hrabskyi10
WSep 4 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.2591111782A. Hrabskyi1.57116711113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Hrabskyi1.611112113V. Savoliuk2.2091060WSep 4 · 14:40A. Hrabskyi2.101116123A. Yurkov1.67614100LSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133LSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123LSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113WSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 1 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.911071241V. Marushchak1.80121110113LSep 1 · 16:30A. Hrabskyi1.839101161Y. Shmyndra1.8311127113WSep 1 · 15:00A. Hrabskyi1.911191111123A. Yurkov1.80911813102
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