TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084270
Played Sep 6Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711119114––
Oleh Napirko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeYurii Shmyndra to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 72 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Yurii Shmyndra at 56.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 6–5 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Shmyndra
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1574 vs Napirko 1559
Shmyndra
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 40% vs Napirko 0%
Shmyndra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 60% vs Napirko 20%
Shmyndra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra -2 · Napirko -5
Napirko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shmyndra) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 1.80 / Napirko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shmyndra)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084270
Shmyndra1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 31 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it61% 17 of 28
Napirko1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShmyndra5wins
AwayNapirko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra40%2 of 5
AwayNapirko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S2Shmyndra5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S3Shmyndra6Napirko4n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S4Shmyndra6Napirko4n = 10Shmyndra took 6 of 10
S5Shmyndra1Napirko3n = 4Napirko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShmyndraNapirkoS − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.1+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 192 vs 435 / 86845.3%50.1%87 / 192 vs 435 / 868Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShmyndraShmyndra 1.80/Napirko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shmyndra · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra—11711113O. Napirko—811941
LAug 22 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra—1311910122O. Napirko—1191112143
LAug 9 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra—119101162O. Napirko—511128113
WJul 11 · 19:05Y. Shmyndra—61111113O. Napirko—113951
WJun 27 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra—135116113O. Napirko—111151192
LJun 26 · 22:30Y. Shmyndra—241171O. Napirko—11118113
WJun 7 · 11:35Y. Shmyndra—71111113O. Napirko—118871
WJun 6 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra—71111113O. Napirko—115571
LMay 31 · 08:05Y. Shmyndra—1287171O. Napirko—101111193
LMay 30 · 17:05Y. Shmyndra—81181162O. Napirko—118115113
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551WSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
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