TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079181
Played Sep 5Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119118––––
Oleh Napirko
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:37 and never touched — 82.2% is still 82.2%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
82.2%
82.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 82.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 3–0 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1736 vs Napirko 1560
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 60% vs Napirko 40%
Kozachuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 60% vs Napirko 40%
Kozachuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -1 · Napirko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.17 / Napirko 4.50
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079181
Kozachuk1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 132 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Napirko4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 53 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKozachuk3wins
AwayNapirko0wins
Kozachuk leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk100%3 of 3
AwayNapirkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk3Napirko0n = 3Kozachuk took 3 of 3
S2Kozachuk3Napirko0n = 3Kozachuk took 3 of 3
S3Kozachuk2Napirko1n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKozachukNapirkoK − NBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.324.0+13.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime547 / 1103 vs 442 / 87349.6%50.6%547 / 1103 vs 442 / 873Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.17/Napirko 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.2%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WNov 16 · 12:35I. Kozachuk—1111113O. Napirko—7580
WNov 7 · 24:00I. Kozachuk—11119143O. Napirko—6511121
WOct 19 · 09:05I. Kozachuk—1112113O. Napirko—31050
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
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