TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084192
Played Sep 6Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115117511118––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 56.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 39–26 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 26 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-26 in 65
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 13 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1751 vs Romaniak 1747
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 80% vs Romaniak 60%
Kozachuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 60% vs Romaniak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +2 · Romaniak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.67 / Romaniak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kozachuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084192
Kozachuk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 134 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it81% 101 of 125
Romaniak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 124 of 303
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk7wins
AwayRomaniak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk100%6 of 6
AwayRomaniak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk6Romaniak4n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk8Romaniak2n = 10Kozachuk took 8 of 10
S3Kozachuk6Romaniak4n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S4Kozachuk3Romaniak2n = 5Kozachuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukRomaniakK − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.829.5+7.3per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime547 / 1095 vs 228 / 50150%45.5%547 / 1095 vs 228 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.67/Romaniak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk—91181232I. Romaniak—1181110113
LAug 31 · 15:55I. Kozachuk—991181I. Romaniak—11119113
LAug 27 · 20:30I. Kozachuk—7470I. Romaniak—1111113
WAug 25 · 10:25I. Kozachuk—111198113I. Romaniak—87111182
WAug 24 · 12:25I. Kozachuk—111110113I. Romaniak—281231
WAug 18 · 05:05I. Kozachuk—1111113I. Romaniak—7540
WAug 17 · 18:05I. Kozachuk—1112133I. Romaniak—310110
WAug 17 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—1111113I. Romaniak—3580
WAug 11 · 05:05I. Kozachuk—91111113I. Romaniak—118671
WAug 10 · 12:35I. Kozachuk—1111113I. Romaniak—2450
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580LAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak1.731111113I. Romaniak2.007870
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