TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054501
Played Sep 1Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811811––––
Ivan Romaniak
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:06 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 66.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 57–23 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 23 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-23 in 80
Rak
Wrong
gap of 34 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1823 vs Romaniak 1747
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Romaniak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 80% vs Romaniak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +2 · Romaniak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.50 / Romaniak 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13054501
Rak1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 268 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it92% 131 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 188 of 233
Romaniak2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 126 of 309
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak7wins
AwayRomaniak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak80%4 of 5
AwayRomaniak40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S2Rak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S3Rak5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Rak3Romaniak4n = 7Romaniak took 4 of 7
S5Rak4Romaniak0n = 4Rak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakRomaniakRak − RomaniakBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.036.8+3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime489 / 891 vs 228 / 50154.9%45.5%489 / 891 vs 228 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.50/Romaniak 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak—7880I. Romaniak—1111113
WAug 31 · 13:55S. Rak—11811133I. Romaniak—7115111
WAug 25 · 07:25S. Rak—911911113I. Romaniak—11911772
WAug 24 · 18:55S. Rak—1111113I. Romaniak—6570
LAug 21 · 24:30S. Rak—10810I. Romaniak—1211113
WAug 18 · 11:35S. Rak—151177113I. Romaniak—137111162
WAug 17 · 15:05S. Rak—911118113I. Romaniak—11881172
WAug 16 · 23:00S. Rak—6111113113I. Romaniak—11421552
WAug 11 · 11:35S. Rak—11712113I. Romaniak—2111071
LAug 10 · 19:05S. Rak—1111961I. Romaniak—91311113
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113LAug 31 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635580LAug 31 · 17:25D. Shcherbak1.731111113I. Romaniak2.007870
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