TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067725
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118511114118––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Rak at 57.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 47–41 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 41 of their 88 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-41 in 88
Rak
Correct
gap of 6 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1827 vs Shcherbak 1752
Rak
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 80% vs Shcherbak 60%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Shcherbak 50%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +2 · Shcherbak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.67 / Shcherbak 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Rak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067725
Rak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 268 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it92% 131 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 188 of 233
Shcherbak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 129 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak5wins
AwayShcherbak5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak66.7%4 of 6
AwayShcherbak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Shcherbak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak3Shcherbak7n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S3Rak6Shcherbak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Rak5Shcherbak4n = 9Rak took 5 of 9
S5Rak2Shcherbak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakShcherbakR − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.639.2+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime490 / 892 vs 314 / 60654.9%51.8%490 / 892 vs 314 / 606Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.67/Shcherbak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 07:35S. Rak—7711121D. Shcherbak—11118143
LAug 17 · 14:05S. Rak—17111172D. Shcherbak—111154113
WAug 16 · 21:30S. Rak—11118113D. Shcherbak—991181
LAug 13 · 23:00S. Rak—1261181D. Shcherbak—101113113
LAug 11 · 06:35S. Rak—681151D. Shcherbak—11115113
WAug 10 · 14:05S. Rak—1071111113D. Shcherbak—12118582
LAug 7 · 14:05S. Rak—15113692D. Shcherbak—1381111113
WAug 6 · 20:00S. Rak—11511113D. Shcherbak—811651
WAug 4 · 06:25S. Rak—1111113D. Shcherbak—7770
WAug 3 · 13:55S. Rak—119711113D. Shcherbak—61111542
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891
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