TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067373
Played Sep 3Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121151210119––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:38 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Rak at 69.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 1–1 Ruslan Lazebnyi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rak 1823 vs Lazebnyi 1522
Rak
Correct
both rated, 301 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Rak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Lazebnyi -3
Lazebnyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.33 / Lazebnyi 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Rak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13067373
Rak1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 268 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it92% 131 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 188 of 233
Lazebnyi3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRak1wins
AwayLazebnyi1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRakLazebnyiR − LBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.036.5+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime489 / 891 vs 45 / 9054.9%50%489 / 891 vs 45 / 90Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.33/Lazebnyi 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 22 · 05:35S. Rak—81111113R. Lazebnyi—116591
LAug 20 · 21:30S. Rak—11751172R. Lazebnyi—311116113
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342
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