TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054124
Played Sep 1Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117711811––
Serhii Rak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 66.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 83–50 Serhii Rak Serhii Rak has won 50 of their 133 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
83-50 in 133
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 33 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1878 vs Rak 1809
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 60% vs Rak 40%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 60% vs Rak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov -2 · Rak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.44 / Rak 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Pesternikov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13054124
Pesternikov1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 226 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it95% 124 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it85% 178 of 210
Rak2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog28% won 36 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back9% 7 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov10wins
AwayRak0wins
Pesternikov leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%9 of 9
AwayRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov9Rak1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S2Pesternikov7Rak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S3Pesternikov7Rak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov7Rak0n = 7Pesternikov took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovRakP − RBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.625.8+12.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovRakBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1110 vs 488 / 89053.3%54.8%592 / 1110 vs 488 / 890Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.44/Rak 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 07:05D. Pesternikov—11911113S. Rak—111991
WAug 21 · 02:00D. Pesternikov—1112113S. Rak—71030
WAug 18 · 05:35D. Pesternikov—11117113S. Rak—631151
WAug 17 · 13:05D. Pesternikov—1111133S. Rak—88110
WAug 17 · 24:30D. Pesternikov—11611123S. Rak—5112101
WAug 13 · 20:00D. Pesternikov—11118113S. Rak—421161
WAug 11 · 05:35D. Pesternikov—1111113S. Rak—6770
WAug 10 · 13:05D. Pesternikov—11711113S. Rak—211921
WAug 9 · 20:00D. Pesternikov—71111113S. Rak—118871
WAug 7 · 24:30D. Pesternikov—11118113S. Rak—441181
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091
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