TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084487
Played Sep 6Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210114119––––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 57 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 76.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 59–29 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 29 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-29 in 88
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 30 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1886 vs Shcherbak 1762
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 100% vs Shcherbak 80%
Pesternikov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 60% vs Shcherbak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +5 · Shcherbak +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.30 / Shcherbak 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Pesternikov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084487
Pesternikov1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 224 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it95% 124 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it85% 179 of 210
Shcherbak3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 126 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov9wins
AwayShcherbak1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%9 of 9
AwayShcherbakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov9Shcherbak1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S2Pesternikov9Shcherbak1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S3Pesternikov8Shcherbak2n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S4Pesternikov1Shcherbak2n = 3Shcherbak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovShcherbakP − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match35.926.7+9.2per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1109 vs 319 / 61553.4%51.9%592 / 1109 vs 319 / 615Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.30/Shcherbak 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:25D. Pesternikov—812681D. Shcherbak—111011113
WAug 31 · 15:25D. Pesternikov—11911113D. Shcherbak—811781
WAug 25 · 07:55D. Pesternikov—1111113D. Shcherbak—9840
WAug 24 · 16:25D. Pesternikov—1111113D. Shcherbak—7750
WAug 22 · 08:35D. Pesternikov—1111143D. Shcherbak—89120
WAug 21 · 18:35D. Pesternikov—1111113D. Shcherbak—8870
WAug 21 · 24:00D. Pesternikov—1111113D. Shcherbak—2870
WAug 18 · 09:05D. Pesternikov—111179113D. Shcherbak—47111172
WAug 17 · 18:35D. Pesternikov—1111113D. Shcherbak—8740
WAug 16 · 23:30D. Pesternikov—1111113D. Shcherbak—8770
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720LSep 1 · 08:55D. Pesternikov1.57118941I. Kozachuk2.2521111113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450
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