TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13054436
Played Sep 1Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
112811911411––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 67 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 58.6%
67 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 144–139 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 139 of their 283 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
144-139 in 283
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 283, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1861 vs Kozachuk 1717
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 40% vs Kozachuk 20%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 50% vs Kozachuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov -3 · Kozachuk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.57 / Kozachuk 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13054436
Pesternikov1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 226 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it95% 124 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it85% 178 of 210
Kozachuk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 105 of 264
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov8wins
AwayKozachuk2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov85.7%6 of 7
AwayKozachuk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Kozachuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Pesternikov7Kozachuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov6Kozachuk3n = 9Pesternikov took 6 of 9
S5Pesternikov2Kozachuk1n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovKozachukP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.235.8+6.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1111 vs 547 / 110753.3%49.4%592 / 1111 vs 547 / 1107Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.57/Kozachuk 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 06:55D. Pesternikov—1131071I. Kozachuk—61112113
WAug 24 · 14:25D. Pesternikov—1111113I. Kozachuk—4630
WAug 18 · 07:05D. Pesternikov—118116113I. Kozachuk—91141182
WAug 17 · 14:35D. Pesternikov—12912113I. Kozachuk—10111031
WAug 16 · 22:30D. Pesternikov—11116113I. Kozachuk—571181
WAug 14 · 24:00D. Pesternikov—116147123I. Kozachuk—8111211102
WAug 11 · 07:05D. Pesternikov—111013113I. Kozachuk—5121131
WAug 10 · 14:35D. Pesternikov—81111113I. Kozachuk—118541
LAug 10 · 02:00D. Pesternikov—611912112I. Kozachuk—1161110133
WAug 6 · 22:30D. Pesternikov—91211113I. Kozachuk—1110591
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101LSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113
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