TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079159
Played Sep 5Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411911118113711
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 86 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 23–22 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 22 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:23What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-22 in 45
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1752 vs Kovalchuk 1608
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 60% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Kozachuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 60% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +2 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kozachuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.73 / Kovalchuk 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079159
Kozachuk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 132 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Kovalchuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog45% won 64 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk3wins
AwayKovalchuk7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayKovalchuk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kozachuk3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Kozachuk4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kozachuk3Kovalchuk4n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5Kozachuk2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukKovalchukKozachuk − KovalchukBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.941.7−6.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime547 / 1102 vs 359 / 70349.6%51.1%547 / 1102 vs 359 / 703Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.73/Kovalchuk 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 29 · 02:30I. Kozachuk—6260N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WJun 15 · 02:00I. Kozachuk—111110113N. Kovalchuk—681261
LJun 5 · 24:00I. Kozachuk—117751N. Kovalchuk—81111113
LJun 3 · 10:35I. Kozachuk—7960N. Kovalchuk—1111113
WJun 2 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—611511113N. Kovalchuk—11911992
LMay 19 · 24:30I. Kozachuk—691221N. Kovalchuk—111110113
LMay 14 · 20:00I. Kozachuk—810151372N. Kovalchuk—11121311113
WMay 10 · 22:45I. Kozachuk—1161111113N. Kovalchuk—91191382
LApr 27 · 22:00I. Kozachuk—81111852N. Kovalchuk—116611113
LApr 23 · 20:30I. Kozachuk—9750N. Kovalchuk—1111113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
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