TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13068226
Played Sep 4Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117113116––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:08 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Rak at 62.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 74–55 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 55 of their 129 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
74-55 in 129
Rak
Correct
gap of 19 in 129, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1817 vs Kozachuk 1743
Rak
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Kozachuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 50% vs Kozachuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -2 · Kozachuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.57 / Kozachuk 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rak)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13068226
Rak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 268 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it92% 131 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 188 of 233
Kozachuk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 105 of 263
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak9wins
AwayKozachuk1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%5 of 5
AwayKozachuk20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Rak7Kozachuk3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S3Rak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Rak8Kozachuk0n = 8Rak took 8 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakKozachukR − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.432.4+7.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 896 vs 546 / 110554.9%49.4%492 / 896 vs 546 / 1105Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.57/Kozachuk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 17:05S. Rak—11119113I. Kozachuk—581151
WAug 7 · 02:00S. Rak—11711113I. Kozachuk—911691
WAug 4 · 07:25S. Rak—71111113I. Kozachuk—118581
WAug 3 · 16:55S. Rak—91111113I. Kozachuk—111891
WAug 1 · 09:35S. Rak—11118113I. Kozachuk—991141
WJul 28 · 09:35S. Rak—511312113I. Kozachuk—113111082
WJul 27 · 02:00S. Rak—1111113I. Kozachuk—5590
WJul 24 · 15:05S. Rak—12811113I. Kozachuk—1011631
LJul 24 · 24:00S. Rak—6770I. Kozachuk—1111113
WJul 21 · 09:25S. Rak—7111211113I. Kozachuk—11414752
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891
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