TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084097
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511711––––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 38–40 Denys Shcherbak Ivan Kozachuk has won 38 of their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-40 in 78
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 2 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1787 vs Shcherbak 1773
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 100% vs Shcherbak 80%
Kozachuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 80% vs Shcherbak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +5 · Shcherbak +2
Kozachuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.80 / Shcherbak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084097
Kozachuk1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 134 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it81% 101 of 125
Shcherbak1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 126 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk5wins
AwayShcherbak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayShcherbak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk7Shcherbak3n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S2Kozachuk6Shcherbak4n = 10Kozachuk took 6 of 10
S3Kozachuk5Shcherbak5n = 10split evenly
S4Kozachuk1Shcherbak3n = 4Shcherbak took 3 of 4
S5Kozachuk1Shcherbak2n = 3Shcherbak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukShcherbakK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.733.6+1.1per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime550 / 1098 vs 321 / 61850.1%51.9%550 / 1098 vs 321 / 618Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.80/Shcherbak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 09:58I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—8350
LSep 1 · 07:25I. Kozachuk—4970D. Shcherbak—1111113
WAug 31 · 12:25I. Kozachuk—168114113D. Shcherbak—141181182
WAug 25 · 04:55I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—9940
WAug 24 · 17:55I. Kozachuk—1111113D. Shcherbak—9630
LAug 18 · 10:35I. Kozachuk—6390D. Shcherbak—1111113
LAug 17 · 16:05I. Kozachuk—11118782D. Shcherbak—661111113
LAug 16 · 20:30I. Kozachuk—11871582D. Shcherbak—6111113113
WAug 14 · 01:00I. Kozachuk—1111153D. Shcherbak—48130
LAug 11 · 08:35I. Kozachuk—711831D. Shcherbak—11711113
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182WSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181WSep 5 · 10:35R. Haiseniuk2.756101171I. Kozachuk1.4011129113WSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891WSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143
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