TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084808
Played Sep 6Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111184111210411
Denys Shcherbak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Rak at 57.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 52–43 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 43 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-43 in 95
Rak
Wrong
gap of 9 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1828 vs Shcherbak 1773
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Shcherbak 80%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Shcherbak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +3 · Shcherbak +1
Rak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.67 / Shcherbak 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Rak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084808
Rak1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 264 of 416
Up 2–0, closes it92% 129 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it81% 185 of 229
Shcherbak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 126 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak6wins
AwayShcherbak4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak100%6 of 6
AwayShcherbak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak6Shcherbak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Rak6Shcherbak4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak7Shcherbak3n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S4Rak3Shcherbak2n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakShcherbakR − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.031.8+3.2per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 899 vs 321 / 61855%51.9%494 / 899 vs 321 / 618Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.67/Shcherbak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak—11511113D. Shcherbak—811481
WSep 1 · 04:55S. Rak—1311113D. Shcherbak—11180
LAug 31 · 18:55S. Rak—811671D. Shcherbak—11911113
WAug 25 · 11:25S. Rak—1111113D. Shcherbak—9580
WAug 24 · 14:55S. Rak—1111113D. Shcherbak—7640
WAug 22 · 11:05S. Rak—1112113D. Shcherbak—71080
LAug 20 · 20:00S. Rak—14970D. Shcherbak—1611113
LAug 18 · 07:35S. Rak—7711121D. Shcherbak—11118143
LAug 17 · 14:05S. Rak—17111172D. Shcherbak—111154113
WAug 16 · 21:30S. Rak—11118113D. Shcherbak—991181
S. Rak10
WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370WSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671WSep 4 · 02:00S. Rak1.5791111113I. Kozachuk2.25117361LSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113LSep 3 · 23:00S. Rak1.301111771R. Haiseniuk3.4071311113WSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481WSep 3 · 20:00S. Rak1.33101112113R. Lazebnyi3.251251091WSep 1 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.44811781S. Rak2.6311711113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891LSep 3 · 21:30S. Rak1.6711511113D. Shcherbak2.10811481
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