TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079310
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911711––––
Denys Shcherbak
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 58 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 60.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 1–0 Denys Shcherbak Denys Shcherbak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1553 vs Shcherbak 1743
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 40% vs Shcherbak 80%
Shcherbak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 30% vs Shcherbak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -2 · Shcherbak +3
Shcherbak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Shcherbak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 2.38 / Shcherbak 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Shcherbak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079310
Napirko2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 53 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Shcherbak1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 153 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it93% 87 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it76% 119 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNapirko1wins
AwayShcherbak0wins
Napirko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNapirkoShcherbakN − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.027.0+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime442 / 874 vs 318 / 61450.6%51.8%442 / 874 vs 318 / 614Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakNapirko 2.38/Shcherbak 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 8 · 11:05O. Napirko—1114113D. Shcherbak—71280
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891WSep 4 · 03:00R. Haiseniuk2.38102120D. Shcherbak1.531211143
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