TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084324
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115117911114––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 70.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 42–14 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 14 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-14 in 56
Napirko
Correct
gap of 28 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1549 vs Mitla 1474
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 20% vs Mitla 60%
Mitla
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 30% vs Mitla 70%
Mitla
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +1 · Mitla +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.36 / Mitla 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Napirko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084324
Napirko1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 67 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it73% 55 of 75
Mitla3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 168 of 389
Down 0–1, comes back27% 61 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back12% 15 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko8wins
AwayMitla2wins
Napirko leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko100%8 of 8
AwayMitlan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko8Mitla2n = 10Napirko took 8 of 10
S2Napirko8Mitla2n = 10Napirko took 8 of 10
S3Napirko9Mitla1n = 10Napirko took 9 of 10
S4Napirko1Mitla2n = 3Mitla took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoMitlaN − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.729.6+6.1per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 875 vs 329 / 75550.4%43.6%441 / 875 vs 329 / 755Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.36/Mitla 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 21:45O. Napirko—8711131O. Mitla—11118153
WAug 25 · 24:45O. Napirko—1112123O. Mitla—610100
WAug 22 · 14:35O. Napirko—1115143O. Mitla—913120
WAug 19 · 22:45O. Napirko—1211113O. Mitla—10480
WAug 18 · 24:45O. Napirko—1111113O. Mitla—6680
WAug 13 · 20:15O. Napirko—1111113O. Mitla—6880
WAug 5 · 24:45O. Napirko—1211133O. Mitla—109110
WAug 4 · 24:15O. Napirko—11119113O. Mitla—941191
WJul 31 · 01:15O. Napirko—1111113O. Mitla—6680
LJul 28 · 21:45O. Napirko—1131171O. Mitla—13119113
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
O. Mitla10
WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla2.38111192113S. Kalenyk1.5387111182WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152LSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151
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