TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084412
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
2111012116911––
Serhii Kalenyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Serhii Kalenyk below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 17–27 Serhii Kalenyk Oleh Napirko has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Napirko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-27 in 44
Kalenyk
Correct
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1559 vs Kalenyk 1515
Napirko
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 20% vs Kalenyk 60%
Kalenyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 20% vs Kalenyk 40%
Kalenyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -4 · Kalenyk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.80 / Kalenyk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Napirko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084412
Napirko1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 68 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 56 of 76
Kalenyk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 75 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko5wins
AwayKalenyk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko71.4%5 of 7
AwayKalenyk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko7Kalenyk3n = 10Napirko took 7 of 10
S2Napirko6Kalenyk4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S3Napirko5Kalenyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Napirko3Kalenyk3n = 6split evenly
S5Napirko1Kalenyk3n = 4Kalenyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoKalenykN − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.7+1.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoKalenykBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 868 vs 339 / 72050.1%47.1%435 / 868 vs 339 / 720Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.80/Kalenyk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kalenyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko—2101191S. Kalenyk—11126113
LAug 20 · 02:45O. Napirko—9980S. Kalenyk—1111113
LAug 13 · 23:15O. Napirko—11117372S. Kalenyk—541111113
WAug 4 · 20:15O. Napirko—1111113S. Kalenyk—8960
LAug 3 · 20:45O. Napirko—11491192S. Kalenyk—911119113
WJul 31 · 24:15O. Napirko—1171110113S. Kalenyk—61171252
WJul 28 · 20:15O. Napirko—11119113S. Kalenyk—971181
WJul 22 · 20:45O. Napirko—1116113S. Kalenyk—71490
LJul 21 · 23:15O. Napirko—51191192S. Kalenyk—118118113
WJul 18 · 17:05O. Napirko—1211113S. Kalenyk—10850
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
S. Kalenyk10
WSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113LSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791WSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113WSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080WSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113LSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840LSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551LSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532
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