TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079196
Played Sep 5Finished
Oleh Napirko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111181113116118
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 63.7%
96 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 16–21 Nazar Kovalchuk Oleh Napirko has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-21 in 37
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1559 vs Kovalchuk 1575
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 20% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 40% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -1 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 2.50 / Kovalchuk 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079196
Napirko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Kovalchuk1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 167 of 288
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it71% 114 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNapirko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko100%4 of 4
AwayKovalchuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Napirko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Napirko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Napirko2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
S5Napirko3Kovalchuk0n = 3Napirko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoKovalchukN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.036.9−1.9per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 869 vs 363 / 71150.2%51.1%436 / 869 vs 363 / 711Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukNapirko 2.50/Kovalchuk 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 09:35O. Napirko—1111113N. Kovalchuk—7660
WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko—6111111113N. Kovalchuk—11813682
LSep 4 · 13:35O. Napirko—1010110N. Kovalchuk—1212133
LAug 29 · 11:05O. Napirko—5740N. Kovalchuk—1111113
LAug 28 · 15:35O. Napirko—98160N. Kovalchuk—1111183
WAug 26 · 23:15O. Napirko—1112113N. Kovalchuk—81060
WAug 24 · 23:15O. Napirko—116117113N. Kovalchuk—91181192
WAug 19 · 21:15O. Napirko—61111113N. Kovalchuk—118961
WAug 17 · 23:15O. Napirko—111235113N. Kovalchuk—810111192
LAug 15 · 06:35O. Napirko—71540N. Kovalchuk—1117113
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.