TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084894
Played Sep 6Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116411114115––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 63 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 73.2%
63 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 30–12 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 12 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:29What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-12 in 42
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 18 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1618 vs Mitla 1483
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Mitla 80%
Mitla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Mitla 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Mitla +4
Mitla
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.36 / Mitla 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084894
Kovalchuk1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 167 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it71% 114 of 161
Mitla3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 168 of 389
Down 0–1, comes back27% 61 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back12% 15 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayMitla3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk71.4%5 of 7
AwayMitla33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk7Mitla3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk4Mitla6n = 10Mitla took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk6Mitla1n = 7Kovalchuk took 6 of 7
S5Kovalchuk2Mitla1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMitlaK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.339.0+4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 706 vs 327 / 75051.1%43.6%361 / 706 vs 327 / 750Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.36/Mitla 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk—11117123O. Mitla—7611101
LAug 20 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk—81180O. Mitla—1113113
WAug 17 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk—1114113O. Mitla—71250
WAug 5 · 21:45N. Kovalchuk—11179113O. Mitla—8151191
WAug 4 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk—8111121113O. Mitla—111351962
WAug 1 · 19:05N. Kovalchuk—11811123O. Mitla—9113101
WJul 31 · 23:30N. Kovalchuk—811713113O. Mitla—117111152
LJul 26 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk—1111811132O. Mitla—713119153
LJul 25 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk—1197101O. Mitla—91111123
WJul 24 · 21:00N. Kovalchuk—1411113O. Mitla—12750
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
O. Mitla10
LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113WSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla2.38111192113S. Kalenyk1.5387111182WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152LSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151
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