TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078894
Played Sep 5Finished
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4113111151191113
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 89 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 57.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 7–9 Nazar Kovalchuk Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1568 vs Kovalchuk 1608
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Kovalchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 50% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi +1 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 2.10 / Kovalchuk 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13078894
Lazebnyi2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 16 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Kovalchuk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 166 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it94% 67 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it71% 113 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLazebnyi4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKovalchuk75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi2Kovalchuk8n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S2Lazebnyi5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Lazebnyi7Kovalchuk3n = 10Lazebnyi took 7 of 10
S4Lazebnyi3Kovalchuk5n = 8Kovalchuk took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLazebnyiKovalchukL − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.438.6−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 103 vs 360 / 70550.5%51.1%52 / 103 vs 360 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukLazebnyi 2.10/Kovalchuk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 12:05R. Lazebnyi—91211113N. Kovalchuk—1110751
WAug 31 · 20:15R. Lazebnyi—1111113N. Kovalchuk—8290
LAug 29 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi—671191N. Kovalchuk—11119113
LAug 28 · 17:35R. Lazebnyi—41111101N. Kovalchuk—11613123
LAug 25 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi—57100N. Kovalchuk—1111123
LAug 25 · 03:15R. Lazebnyi—3101171N. Kovalchuk—11126113
LAug 22 · 11:35R. Lazebnyi—86131282N. Kovalchuk—11111110113
WAug 21 · 15:05R. Lazebnyi—11125113N. Kovalchuk—8101171
WAug 17 · 22:15R. Lazebnyi—411116113N. Kovalchuk—11981162
LAug 15 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi—8711111N. Kovalchuk—11116133
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.3012790R. Lazebnyi3.401411113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113
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