TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073952
Played Sep 4Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012711511––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 76 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 60.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 9–6 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1657 vs Lazebnyi 1572
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Lazebnyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Lazebnyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.61 / Lazebnyi 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13073952
Kovalchuk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 167 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it94% 67 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it72% 113 of 157
Lazebnyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 15 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk6wins
AwayLazebnyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayLazebnyi100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk7Lazebnyi3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Lazebnyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk4Lazebnyi6n = 10Lazebnyi took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk5Lazebnyi3n = 8Kovalchuk took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiK − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.3+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 697 vs 48 / 9551.2%50.5%357 / 697 vs 48 / 95Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.61/Lazebnyi 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk—8290R. Lazebnyi—1111113
WAug 29 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk—11119113R. Lazebnyi—671191
WAug 28 · 17:35N. Kovalchuk—11613123R. Lazebnyi—41111101
WAug 25 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—1111123R. Lazebnyi—57100
WAug 25 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk—11126113R. Lazebnyi—3101171
WAug 22 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk—11111110113R. Lazebnyi—86131282
LAug 21 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk—8101171R. Lazebnyi—11125113
LAug 17 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk—11981162R. Lazebnyi—411116113
WAug 15 · 11:05N. Kovalchuk—11116133R. Lazebnyi—8711111
LAug 14 · 16:05N. Kovalchuk—991261R. Lazebnyi—111110103
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.3012790R. Lazebnyi3.401411113
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