TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084366
Played Sep 6Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611611––––
Oleh Napirko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 60.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 21–16 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1564 vs Napirko 1529
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Napirko 0%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Napirko 20%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -2 · Napirko -5
Napirko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.57 / Napirko 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084366
Kovalchuk1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 167 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it71% 114 of 161
Napirko2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 54 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayNapirko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNapirko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%4 of 6
AwayNapirko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Napirko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk6Napirko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk2Napirko2n = 4split evenly
S5Kovalchuk0Napirko3n = 3Napirko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukNapirkoK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.0+1.9per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 710 vs 440 / 87451%50.3%362 / 710 vs 440 / 874Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.57/Napirko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk—7660O. Napirko—1111113
LSep 5 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk—11813682O. Napirko—6111111113
WSep 4 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk—1212133O. Napirko—1010110
WAug 29 · 11:05N. Kovalchuk—1111113O. Napirko—5740
WAug 28 · 15:35N. Kovalchuk—1111183O. Napirko—98160
LAug 26 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk—81060O. Napirko—1112113
LAug 24 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk—91181192O. Napirko—116117113
LAug 19 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk—118961O. Napirko—61111113
LAug 17 · 23:15N. Kovalchuk—810111192O. Napirko—111235113
WAug 15 · 06:35N. Kovalchuk—1117113O. Napirko—71540
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113LSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192WSep 4 · 19:05R. Haiseniuk1.838141161O. Napirko1.8311168113
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