TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073592
Played Sep 4Finished
Nazar Kovalchuk
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1145119111012––
Yaroslav Kravets
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 74.3% is still 74.3%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
74.3%
74.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Yaroslav Kravets below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 73 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 74.3%
73 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 5–0 Yaroslav Kravets Yaroslav Kravets has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1640 vs Kravets 1562
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Kravets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Kravets 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Kravets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kravets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.30 / Kravets 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073592
Kovalchuk1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 167 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it94% 67 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it72% 113 of 157
Kravets3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayKravets0wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 5–0, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%4 of 4
AwayKravetsn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Kravets1n = 5Kovalchuk took 4 of 5
S2Kovalchuk3Kravets2n = 5Kovalchuk took 3 of 5
S3Kovalchuk5Kravets0n = 5Kovalchuk took 5 of 5
S4Kovalchuk2Kravets1n = 3Kovalchuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKovalchukKravetsKovalchuk − KravetsBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.828.8+10.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukKravetsBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 700 vs 235 / 47451.1%49.6%358 / 700 vs 235 / 474Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.30/Kravets 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.3%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kravets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 14 · 17:05N. Kovalchuk—1111113Y. Kravets—9750
WAug 8 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk—711114113Y. Kravets—11471182
WJun 13 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk—1211133Y. Kravets—104110
WMay 16 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk—11911113Y. Kravets—911391
WMar 13 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk—11611113Y. Kravets—711161
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:35N. Kovalchuk1.617121191S. Kalenyk2.2011149113LSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133LSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7349111172N. Kovalchuk2.00111183113LSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682WSep 5 · 04:35R. Haiseniuk1.8381271152N. Kovalchuk1.831110115113
Y. Kravets10
WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 15:35Y. Kravets1.501113113O. Napirko2.5081170LSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 13:05Y. Kravets2.5011311672R. Haiseniuk1.50511911113WAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Kravets2.386111211113R. Lazebnyi1.53116101372LAug 29 · 08:35Y. Kravets3.25122921N. Kovalchuk1.33101111113WAug 29 · 07:05Y. Kravets1.501191111113O. Napirko2.5011151352LAug 29 · 05:05Y. Kravets2.3881140R. Haiseniuk1.531113113LAug 15 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.801111113Y. Kravets1.919790
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