TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037633
Played Aug 29Finished
Yaroslav Kravets
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1119111151113115
Oleh Napirko
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kravets to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Kravets above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 88 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Yaroslav Kravets at 61.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Kravets 26–11 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 11 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kravets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-11 in 37
Kravets
Correct
gap of 15 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kravets 1570 vs Napirko 1528
Kravets
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kravets 20% vs Napirko 40%
Napirko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kravets 30% vs Napirko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kravets -2 · Napirko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kravets) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kravets form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKravets 1.50 / Napirko 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kravets)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13037633
Kravets1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite33% won 14 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it52% 12 of 23
Napirko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 51 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKravets7wins
AwayNapirko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKravets leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKravets75%6 of 8
AwayNapirkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kravets8Napirko2n = 10Kravets took 8 of 10
S2Kravets5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kravets5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kravets4Napirko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKravetsNapirkoK − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.9+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKravetsNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 471 vs 442 / 86949.7%50.9%234 / 471 vs 442 / 869Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KravetsKravets 1.50/Napirko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Kravets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kravets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 07:05Y. Kravets—1191111113O. Napirko—11151352
WAug 15 · 09:35Y. Kravets—112411113O. Napirko—61111592
WAug 14 · 13:05Y. Kravets—1111113O. Napirko—7950
LAug 8 · 09:05Y. Kravets—1181291O. Napirko—91114113
WNov 23 · 07:35Y. Kravets—111410113O. Napirko—9121271
LNov 22 · 17:35Y. Kravets—871171O. Napirko—11117113
LNov 16 · 10:35Y. Kravets—119661O. Napirko—51111113
WNov 9 · 10:05Y. Kravets—101114143O. Napirko—12612121
WOct 26 · 08:05Y. Kravets—12129153O. Napirko—101011131
WOct 19 · 04:35Y. Kravets—1111113O. Napirko—9580
Y. Kravets10
WSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.301159101Y. Kravets3.4041111123WSep 4 · 15:35Y. Kravets1.501113113O. Napirko2.5081170LSep 4 · 14:35N. Hoshko1.501111133Y. Kravets2.5077110LSep 4 · 13:05Y. Kravets2.5011311672R. Haiseniuk1.50511911113WAug 29 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.809121017102Y. Kravets1.9111101215123WAug 29 · 09:35Y. Kravets2.386111211113R. Lazebnyi1.53116101372LAug 29 · 08:35Y. Kravets3.25122921N. Kovalchuk1.33101111113LAug 29 · 05:05Y. Kravets2.3881140R. Haiseniuk1.531113113LAug 15 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.801111113Y. Kravets1.919790
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 4 · 15:35Y. Kravets1.501113113O. Napirko2.5081170
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