TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079183
Played Sep 5Finished
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611112118711119
Oleh Napirko
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Lazebnyi to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Lazebnyi above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 87 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ruslan Lazebnyi at 62.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Lazebnyi 6–3 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lazebnyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Lazebnyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lazebnyi 1561 vs Napirko 1544
Lazebnyi
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lazebnyi 40% vs Napirko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lazebnyi 50% vs Napirko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lazebnyi -1 · Napirko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Lazebnyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLazebnyi 1.53 / Napirko 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lazebnyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079183
Lazebnyi1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 34 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 25 of 36
Napirko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 53 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLazebnyi6wins
AwayNapirko3wins
3 of 9 to a deciderLazebnyi leads 6–3, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLazebnyi80%4 of 5
AwayNapirko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lazebnyi5Napirko4n = 9Lazebnyi took 5 of 9
S2Lazebnyi5Napirko4n = 9Lazebnyi took 5 of 9
S3Lazebnyi6Napirko3n = 9Lazebnyi took 6 of 9
S4Lazebnyi4Napirko3n = 7Lazebnyi took 4 of 7
S5Lazebnyi2Napirko1n = 3Lazebnyi took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricLazebnyiNapirkoL − NBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.234.9+3.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLazebnyiNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 99 vs 441 / 87050.5%50.7%50 / 99 vs 441 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LazebnyiLazebnyi 1.53/Napirko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Lazebnyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 4 · 17:35R. Lazebnyi—11311113O. Napirko—611471
WAug 29 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi—1111123O. Napirko—97100
LAug 28 · 18:35R. Lazebnyi—111061252O. Napirko—5121110113
LAug 24 · 21:45R. Lazebnyi—9115101O. Napirko—11711123
WAug 17 · 20:15R. Lazebnyi—1111113O. Napirko—8820
WAug 15 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi—881111113O. Napirko—11117562
WAug 14 · 18:35R. Lazebnyi—101111113O. Napirko—128451
LAug 8 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi—311561O. Napirko—11811113
WAug 2 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi—119113113O. Napirko—51171182
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.3012790R. Lazebnyi3.401411113
O. Napirko10
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 09:35N. Kovalchuk1.577660O. Napirko2.251111113LSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:35O. Napirko1.802101191S. Kalenyk1.9111126113LSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113LSep 5 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LSep 5 · 07:35R. Haiseniuk1.6111311113O. Napirko2.20911771WSep 5 · 06:35O. Napirko2.506111111113N. Kovalchuk1.5011813682LSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113
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