TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067505
Played Sep 4Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214711911––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:11 and never touched — 75.5% is still 75.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
75.5%
75.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 64 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 75.5%
64 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 3–2 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1734 vs Lazebnyi 1554
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 20% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Lazebnyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 50% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -4 · Lazebnyi +2
Shcherbak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.30 / Lazebnyi 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 25%
Edge (Shcherbak)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067505
Shcherbak1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 152 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it93% 86 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it76% 118 of 155
Lazebnyi3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeShcherbak3wins
AwayLazebnyi2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderShcherbak leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak60%3 of 5
AwayLazebnyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Lazebnyi0n = 5Shcherbak took 5 of 5
S2Shcherbak3Lazebnyi2n = 5Shcherbak took 3 of 5
S3Shcherbak2Lazebnyi3n = 5Lazebnyi took 3 of 5
S4Shcherbak2Lazebnyi1n = 3Shcherbak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricShcherbakLazebnyiS − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match39.034.4+4.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 608 vs 47 / 9351.6%50.5%314 / 608 vs 47 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.30/Lazebnyi 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.5%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 28 · 14:05D. Shcherbak—1113133R. Lazebnyi—611110
WAug 22 · 06:35D. Shcherbak—1111113R. Lazebnyi—4950
LAug 21 · 14:05D. Shcherbak—119101172R. Lazebnyi—811126113
WAug 21 · 01:30D. Shcherbak—111110113R. Lazebnyi—981291
LAug 8 · 10:05D. Shcherbak—117881R. Lazebnyi—71111113
D. Shcherbak10
LSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113WSep 7 · 01:15I. Kozachuk1.808570D. Shcherbak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko2.389970D. Shcherbak1.531111113WSep 5 · 10:05D. Shcherbak1.67117127113N. Kovalchuk2.10911101182WSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113WSep 5 · 06:05R. Haiseniuk2.636630D. Shcherbak1.441111113LSep 5 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.8061111113D. Shcherbak1.91117891
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113LSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342
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