TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073883
Played Sep 5Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111168111012––
Oleksii Mitla
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 44–54 Oleksii Mitla Mykyta Smyrnov has won 44 of their 98 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:48What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mitla
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-54 in 98
Mitla
Correct
gap of 10 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1640 vs Mitla 1466
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 80% vs Mitla 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 90% vs Mitla 40%
Smyrnov
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov +1 · Mitla +3
Mitla
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.91 / Mitla 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smyrnov)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073883
Smyrnov1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 116 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Mitla1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 63 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it68% 34 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov4wins
AwayMitla6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMitla leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov50%4 of 8
AwayMitlan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov8Mitla2n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Smyrnov5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyrnov5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyrnov5Mitla3n = 8Smyrnov took 5 of 8
S5Smyrnov1Mitla6n = 7Mitla took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovMitlaS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.541.9+1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 789 vs 326 / 74949.4%43.5%390 / 789 vs 326 / 749Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovSmyrnov 1.91/Mitla 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 21:15M. Smyrnov—11119113O. Mitla—951191
LSep 1 · 21:45M. Smyrnov—11312942O. Mitla—5111011113
LAug 30 · 10:05M. Smyrnov—911101182O. Mitla—115129113
WAug 29 · 14:05M. Smyrnov—1111113O. Mitla—2660
LAug 29 · 03:00M. Smyrnov—11101011112O. Mitla—512127133
WAug 25 · 02:45M. Smyrnov—111357143O. Mitla—5111111122
LAug 23 · 06:35M. Smyrnov—11811972O. Mitla—511511113
LAug 17 · 23:45M. Smyrnov—11761152O. Mitla—711118113
LAug 14 · 01:45M. Smyrnov—107141252O. Mitla—12111210113
WAug 12 · 22:45M. Smyrnov—1311113O. Mitla—11990
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112
O. Mitla10
LSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko1.3611119113O. Mitla3.00571141WSep 6 · 10:05O. Mitla2.2541111113S. Kalenyk1.57117791LSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk1.3611411113O. Mitla3.00611451WSep 5 · 01:00O. Mitla1.80126611113V. Vlasenko1.91101111792WSep 5 · 24:00O. Mitla2.38111192113S. Kalenyk1.5387111182WSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152LSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 03:15O. Mitla1.8011913113A. Shypilov1.918111151
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