TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079126
Played Sep 5Finished
Serhii Berezynskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6118111012––––
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Berezynskyi to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Berezynskyi above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Serhii Berezynskyi at 63.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Berezynskyi 10–8 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Berezynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Berezynskyi
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berezynskyi 1649 vs Smyrnov 1616
Berezynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berezynskyi 40% vs Smyrnov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berezynskyi 40% vs Smyrnov 70%
Smyrnov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Berezynskyi +2 · Smyrnov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Berezynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berezynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerezynskyi 1.61 / Smyrnov 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Berezynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079126
Berezynskyi1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 44 of 60
Smyrnov2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 117 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerezynskyi7wins
AwaySmyrnov3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBerezynskyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerezynskyi100%6 of 6
AwaySmyrnov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berezynskyi6Smyrnov4n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Berezynskyi6Smyrnov4n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Berezynskyi8Smyrnov2n = 10Berezynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Berezynskyi2Smyrnov1n = 3Berezynskyi took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerezynskyiSmyrnovB − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.827.5+7.3per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerezynskyiSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 354 vs 390 / 79150.6%49.3%179 / 354 vs 390 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerezynskyiBerezynskyi 1.61/Smyrnov 2.20
Miss
What we said
58.1%
Berezynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 24:30S. Berezynskyi—87100M. Smyrnov—1111123
WAug 19 · 02:15S. Berezynskyi—1111113M. Smyrnov—1160
WAug 8 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi—1411113M. Smyrnov—12640
LJul 29 · 22:15S. Berezynskyi—510111142M. Smyrnov—111271113
WJul 15 · 02:15S. Berezynskyi—1111113M. Smyrnov—3650
WJul 13 · 20:45S. Berezynskyi—11811113M. Smyrnov—711621
WJun 24 · 23:15S. Berezynskyi—711124113M. Smyrnov—118101162
LJun 13 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi—71160M. Smyrnov—1113113
WJun 9 · 24:45S. Berezynskyi—1511113M. Smyrnov—13870
WMay 16 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi—1111113M. Smyrnov—9740
S. Berezynskyi10
LSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841WSep 5 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi1.44111142S. Kalenyk2.639840WSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 02:30S. Berezynskyi1.442111011113S. Kalenyk2.6311312532LSep 5 · 24:30M. Smyrnov2.501111123S. Berezynskyi1.5087100LSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 22:30O. Mitla2.38113117113S. Berezynskyi1.5361141152WSep 4 · 21:00S. Berezynskyi1.5011811113V. Vlasenko2.50711671LSep 1 · 01:52N. Kovalchuk1.4412611153S. Berezynskyi2.6310117131
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112WSep 5 · 24:30M. Smyrnov2.501111123S. Berezynskyi1.5087100
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