TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084411
Played Sep 7Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611911119115115
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
6.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:19 and never touched — 89.3% is still 89.3%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
89.3%
89.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 89.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 8–1 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1924 vs Smyrnov 1552
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 372 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 80% vs Smyrnov 20%
Pesternikov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 80% vs Smyrnov 20%
Pesternikov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +2 · Smyrnov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (80%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.10 / Smyrnov 6.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084411
Pesternikov1.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 224 of 331
Up 2–0, closes it95% 124 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it85% 179 of 210
Smyrnov6.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 118 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePesternikov8wins
AwaySmyrnov1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%5 of 5
AwaySmyrnov25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov5Smyrnov4n = 9Pesternikov took 5 of 9
S2Pesternikov7Smyrnov2n = 9Pesternikov took 7 of 9
S3Pesternikov7Smyrnov2n = 9Pesternikov took 7 of 9
S4Pesternikov4Smyrnov0n = 4Pesternikov took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricPesternikovSmyrnovP − SBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match36.024.7+11.3per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime587 / 1099 vs 392 / 80053.4%49%587 / 1099 vs 392 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.10/Smyrnov 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.3%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov—691111113M. Smyrnov—11119552
WJun 2 · 16:05D. Pesternikov—1111113M. Smyrnov—3920
WMay 26 · 14:35D. Pesternikov—1111113M. Smyrnov—4860
LMay 17 · 23:45D. Pesternikov—75100M. Smyrnov—1111123
WMay 3 · 21:15D. Pesternikov—1111113M. Smyrnov—2640
WApr 30 · 23:25D. Pesternikov—91111113M. Smyrnov—112751
WApr 13 · 03:15D. Pesternikov—91111113M. Smyrnov—118991
WJan 6 · 06:55D. Pesternikov—11115113M. Smyrnov—451151
WJan 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov—1111113M. Smyrnov—7540
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk2.101211113D. Pesternikov1.6710970WSep 6 · 21:15D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010490WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.221291111113R. Lazebnyi4.00101141342WSep 4 · 24:30S. Rak2.50615231D. Pesternikov1.50111311113WSep 3 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.301211113D. Shcherbak3.4010450WSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.10711581D. Pesternikov1.6711611113WSep 3 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.201111113R. Haiseniuk4.339720LSep 1 · 08:55D. Pesternikov1.57118941I. Kozachuk2.2521111113
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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