TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079361
Played Sep 5Finished
Yurii Shmyndra
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191171012611118
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Shmyndra above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 56.2%
96 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Shmyndra 5–8 Mykyta Smyrnov Yurii Shmyndra has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shmyndra 1636 vs Smyrnov 1549
Shmyndra
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shmyndra 80% vs Smyrnov 40%
Shmyndra
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shmyndra 70% vs Smyrnov 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shmyndra -1 · Smyrnov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShmyndra 2.10 / Smyrnov 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smyrnov)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13079361
Shmyndra2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 54 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Smyrnov1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 127 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it88% 56 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 92 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShmyndra4wins
AwaySmyrnov6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShmyndra50%2 of 4
AwaySmyrnov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shmyndra4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S2Shmyndra8Smyrnov2n = 10Shmyndra took 8 of 10
S3Shmyndra2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S4Shmyndra3Smyrnov5n = 8Smyrnov took 5 of 8
S5Shmyndra1Smyrnov2n = 3Smyrnov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShmyndraSmyrnovShmyndra − SmyrnovBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.7−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShmyndraSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 187 vs 391 / 79546%49.2%86 / 187 vs 391 / 795Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovShmyndra 2.10/Smyrnov 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.4%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shmyndra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra—1111106113M. Smyrnov—97121182
LAug 30 · 11:35Y. Shmyndra—111176112M. Smyrnov—451111133
LAug 29 · 12:05Y. Shmyndra—411741M. Smyrnov—11811113
LAug 23 · 10:05Y. Shmyndra—81150M. Smyrnov—1113113
LAug 21 · 22:00Y. Shmyndra—94120M. Smyrnov—1111143
LAug 9 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra—511351M. Smyrnov—11811113
WAug 8 · 14:05Y. Shmyndra—91111113M. Smyrnov—117981
LJul 12 · 10:05Y. Shmyndra—11158352M. Smyrnov—7131111113
WJul 4 · 15:05Y. Shmyndra—11126113M. Smyrnov—6101161
WJun 28 · 11:35Y. Shmyndra—71111113M. Smyrnov—115881
Y. Shmyndra10
LSep 6 · 10:35Y. Shmyndra2.00811101472N. Kovalchuk1.731191212113LSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 07:35Y. Shmyndra1.8011711113O. Napirko1.91811941LSep 6 · 06:05Y. Shmyndra1.50101311962O. Mitla2.501211911113LSep 6 · 04:35Y. Shmyndra1.736250S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841LSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 13:05Y. Shmyndra2.00111111113S. Kalenyk1.73613551WSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
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