TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079337
Played Sep 5Finished
Mykyta Smyrnov
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1185114111315––
Valerii Vlasenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Valerii Vlasenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 78 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 66.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 55–24 Valerii Vlasenko Valerii Vlasenko has won 24 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-24 in 79
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 31 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1619 vs Vlasenko 1466
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 40% vs Vlasenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 60% vs Vlasenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov -1 · Vlasenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 1.53 / Vlasenko 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Smyrnov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079337
Smyrnov1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 127 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it88% 56 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 92 of 124
Vlasenko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 125 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back21% 30 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov7wins
AwayVlasenko3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov75%6 of 8
AwayVlasenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov8Vlasenko2n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Smyrnov5Vlasenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyrnov6Vlasenko4n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Smyrnov3Vlasenko4n = 7Vlasenko took 4 of 7
S5Smyrnov3Vlasenko2n = 5Smyrnov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovVlasenkoS − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.337.8+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovVlasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 793 vs 410 / 93449.3%43.9%391 / 793 vs 410 / 934Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovSmyrnov 1.53/Vlasenko 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 20:45M. Smyrnov—1111113V. Vlasenko—5950
WAug 25 · 24:15M. Smyrnov—1111108113V. Vlasenko—77121162
WAug 21 · 20:00M. Smyrnov—1111123V. Vlasenko—97100
WAug 17 · 20:45M. Smyrnov—7121211113V. Vlasenko—1110101352
LAug 13 · 20:45M. Smyrnov—11911592V. Vlasenko—811811113
WAug 12 · 20:45M. Smyrnov—111158113V. Vlasenko—77111192
LAug 11 · 20:45M. Smyrnov—57100V. Vlasenko—1111123
WAug 9 · 11:05M. Smyrnov—12911113V. Vlasenko—1011561
LAug 6 · 20:45M. Smyrnov—11351192V. Vlasenko—511119113
WAug 6 · 01:15M. Smyrnov—11311123V. Vlasenko—6117101
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123LSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 02:00M. Smyrnov1.919118101O. Mitla1.8011611123
V. Vlasenko10
LSep 6 · 11:05V. Vlasenko1.735420S. Kalenyk2.001111113WSep 6 · 09:05Y. Shmyndra1.7381161172V. Vlasenko2.00115112113WSep 6 · 08:05V. Vlasenko1.831111411113O. Mitla1.8313811452WSep 6 · 07:05N. Kovalchuk1.5312111141V. Vlasenko2.3814136113WSep 6 · 05:35V. Vlasenko2.1012119113O. Napirko1.671061181LSep 5 · 18:35Y. Shmyndra1.73127118113V. Vlasenko2.00101171192LSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:05S. Kalenyk1.915115101V. Vlasenko1.8011411123LSep 5 · 12:05S. Berezynskyi1.441111811113V. Vlasenko2.6313811592WSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.