TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079273
Played Sep 5Finished
Orest Hura
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121181189111311
Mykyta Smyrnov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 104 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Orest Hura at 54.1%
104 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 29–34 Mykyta Smyrnov Orest Hura has won 29 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:41What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-34 in 63
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 5 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1568 vs Smyrnov 1622
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 40% vs Smyrnov 60%
Smyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 50% vs Smyrnov 80%
Smyrnov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura -2 · Smyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hura)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 1.73 / Smyrnov 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hura)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13079273
Hura1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 88 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it98% 44 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it73% 60 of 82
Smyrnov2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 117 of 284
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 151
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura6wins
AwaySmyrnov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura66.7%4 of 6
AwaySmyrnov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura6Smyrnov4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Hura5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Hura6Smyrnov4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S4Hura5Smyrnov3n = 8Hura took 5 of 8
S5Hura2Smyrnov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraSmyrnovH − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.638.8+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 788 vs 390 / 79053.2%49.4%419 / 788 vs 390 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HuraHura 1.73/Smyrnov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 20:30O. Hura—61261172M. Smyrnov—1110117113
WAug 25 · 21:45O. Hura—1181011113M. Smyrnov—81112282
LAug 23 · 11:05O. Hura—11811101M. Smyrnov—21113123
WAug 22 · 24:00O. Hura—6111212113M. Smyrnov—116101482
LAug 19 · 24:45O. Hura—111191292M. Smyrnov—9131110113
WAug 13 · 24:15O. Hura—11911123M. Smyrnov—8115101
LAug 12 · 24:15O. Hura—781181M. Smyrnov—11113113
WAug 8 · 13:05O. Hura—1111143M. Smyrnov—77120
WAug 6 · 21:45O. Hura—71111113M. Smyrnov—119791
WJul 29 · 23:15O. Hura—1411113M. Smyrnov—12930
O. Hura10
WSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113LSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113WSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681LSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101LSep 5 · 01:30O. Hura1.91611171S. Kalenyk1.8011911113WSep 4 · 23:30S. Berezynskyi1.67118861O. Hura2.1071111113LSep 4 · 21:30M. Smyrnov2.0011911113O. Hura1.73611691WSep 4 · 20:30O. Mitla1.9112106101O. Hura1.80101211123WSep 3 · 02:15O. Hura1.6711119113V. Vlasenko2.10991181
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 7 · 02:45D. Pesternikov1.10691111113M. Smyrnov6.5011119552WSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 7 · 24:15I. Kozachuk1.40611118113M. Smyrnov2.7511871172LSep 6 · 22:15D. Shcherbak1.281111113M. Smyrnov3.507660LSep 6 · 20:15S. Rak1.2881111113M. Smyrnov3.50113671LSep 5 · 19:05S. Kalenyk2.501112113M. Smyrnov1.5051080LSep 5 · 17:35M. Smyrnov1.531154131V. Vlasenko2.3881111153LSep 5 · 15:35Y. Shmyndra2.101111106113M. Smyrnov1.6797121182WSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi1.6168100M. Smyrnov2.201111123WSep 4 · 21:30M. Smyrnov2.0011911113O. Hura1.73611691
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