TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094000
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Rak
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210116––––
Orest Hura
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Orest Hura below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 58 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Rak at 73.2%
58 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 4–1 Orest Hura Orest Hura has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Rak
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1789 vs Hura 1621
Rak
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 60% vs Hura 40%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 50% vs Hura 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +1 · Hura -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.30 / Hura 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094000
Rak1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 269 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it92% 133 of 144
Up 1–0, closes it81% 189 of 233
Hura3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 40 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back31% 16 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back23% 6 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRak4wins
AwayHura1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderRak leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak66.7%2 of 3
AwayHuran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak3Hura2n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
S2Rak3Hura2n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
S3Rak3Hura2n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
S4Rak4Hura0n = 4Rak took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricRakHuraR − HBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.435.0+7.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 909 vs 416 / 78254.9%53.2%499 / 909 vs 416 / 782Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.30/Hura 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WDec 23 · 17:05S. Rak—81111113O. Hura—116791
WDec 20 · 18:05S. Rak—1110711113O. Hura—81211972
WDec 19 · 22:30S. Rak—1111113O. Hura—5470
WDec 16 · 17:35S. Rak—91111113O. Hura—115871
LDec 16 · 02:30S. Rak—11881182O. Hura—911116113
S. Rak10
WSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 07:25I. Romaniak2.751111123S. Rak1.4046100WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870LSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080LSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113
O. Hura10
LSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura2.1051771182N. Kovalchuk1.671115114113LSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113LSep 8 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.3611119113O. Hura3.00571161WSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113LSep 5 · 17:05O. Hura2.007111171S. Kalenyk1.7311813113WSep 5 · 16:05O. Hura1.57117149113V. Vlasenko2.25911121152WSep 5 · 14:35O. Hura1.8311911113Y. Shmyndra1.83811681WSep 5 · 12:35O. Hura1.731011119133M. Smyrnov2.00128811112LSep 5 · 03:00V. Vlasenko2.0011815123O. Hura1.7371113101
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