TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13093984
Played Sep 8Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141161210––––
Serhii Rak
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 54 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Rak at 70.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 23–58 Serhii Rak Ivan Romaniak has won 23 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-58 in 81
Rak
Wrong
gap of 35 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1663 vs Rak 1778
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 20% vs Rak 60%
Rak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 30% vs Rak 50%
Rak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak -3 · Rak +1
Romaniak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.75 / Rak 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Rak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13093984
Romaniak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 126 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 112
Rak1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 269 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it92% 133 of 144
Up 1–0, closes it81% 189 of 233
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak2wins
AwayRak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak40%2 of 5
AwayRak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S2Romaniak4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Romaniak4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S4Romaniak3Rak3n = 6split evenly
S5Romaniak0Rak4n = 4Rak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakRakRomaniak − RakBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.939.6−5.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakRakBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 514 vs 498 / 90845.1%54.9%232 / 514 vs 498 / 908Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRomaniak 2.75/Rak 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:45I. Romaniak—5370S. Rak—1111113
WSep 1 · 06:55I. Romaniak—1111113S. Rak—7880
LAug 31 · 13:55I. Romaniak—7115111S. Rak—11811133
LAug 25 · 07:25I. Romaniak—11911772S. Rak—911911113
LAug 24 · 18:55I. Romaniak—6570S. Rak—1111113
WAug 21 · 24:30I. Romaniak—1211113S. Rak—10810
LAug 18 · 11:35I. Romaniak—137111162S. Rak—151177113
LAug 17 · 15:05I. Romaniak—11881172S. Rak—911118113
LAug 16 · 23:00I. Romaniak—11421552S. Rak—6111113113
LAug 11 · 11:35I. Romaniak—2111071S. Rak—11712113
I. Romaniak10
LSep 8 · 05:55I. Romaniak1.364990O. Hura3.001111113LSep 8 · 04:25I. Romaniak1.83811121382N. Kovalchuk1.831171411113LSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:25I. Romaniak1.5711811113Y. Kravets2.25811581LSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:25I. Romaniak1.8051170R. Lazebnyi1.911113113WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790
S. Rak10
WSep 8 · 06:25S. Rak1.331111113N. Kovalchuk3.255870LSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 18:55S. Rak1.301112113R. Lazebnyi3.4081080LSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 14:55I. Romaniak2.634380S. Rak1.441111113LSep 7 · 13:55S. Rak1.67811481D. Shcherbak2.1011711113WSep 7 · 02:15S. Rak1.531111107113I. Kozachuk2.3895121182LSep 7 · 24:45S. Rak2.502850D. Pesternikov1.501111113LSep 6 · 23:15S. Rak1.6781141242D. Shcherbak2.101181110113WSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370
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