TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089195
Played Sep 7Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111113711––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Romaniak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 58 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ivan Romaniak at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 1–0 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Romaniak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1723 vs Lazebnyi 1556
Romaniak
Wrong
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 40% vs Lazebnyi 20%
Romaniak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 50% vs Lazebnyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +2 · Lazebnyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Romaniak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lazebnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 1.80 / Lazebnyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Romaniak)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13089195
Romaniak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 57 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it86% 44 of 51
Lazebnyi1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRomaniak1wins
AwayLazebnyi0wins
Romaniak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRomaniakLazebnyiR − LBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match49.042.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 507 vs 52 / 10545.4%49.5%230 / 507 vs 52 / 105Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RomaniakRomaniak 1.80/Lazebnyi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Romaniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 20 · 23:30I. Romaniak—11914153R. Lazebnyi—61112131
I. Romaniak10
WSep 7 · 11:55I. Romaniak2.10117811113D. Shcherbak1.6741111632WSep 7 · 03:15D. Shcherbak1.739101151I. Romaniak2.0011126113LSep 7 · 01:45I. Romaniak1.3015860M. Smyrnov3.401711113LSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov1.401411113I. Romaniak2.7512790LSep 6 · 21:45S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635370LSep 6 · 20:45I. Kozachuk1.6711115113I. Romaniak2.10571181LSep 1 · 08:25D. Shcherbak1.67911185113I. Romaniak2.10118161172WSep 1 · 06:55S. Rak1.507880I. Romaniak2.501111113WSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.44108100I. Romaniak2.631211123WSep 1 · 04:25I. Kozachuk1.6791181232I. Romaniak2.101181110113
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov1.301116114113R. Lazebnyi3.4051881182LSep 5 · 11:05R. Lazebnyi2.10431111112N. Kovalchuk1.67111159133WSep 5 · 09:05R. Haiseniuk1.671117101152R. Lazebnyi2.101315127113LSep 5 · 08:05R. Lazebnyi2.3810380D. Shcherbak1.531211113LSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.67111111123R. Lazebnyi2.108136101WSep 5 · 05:35R. Lazebnyi1.53611117113O. Napirko2.3811281192LSep 4 · 18:35Y. Kravets2.001191183R. Lazebnyi1.73711661WSep 4 · 17:35O. Napirko2.38611471R. Lazebnyi1.5311311113LSep 4 · 14:05R. Haiseniuk1.7311811123R. Lazebnyi2.008117101WSep 4 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.611110751R. Lazebnyi2.2091211113
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